The 2022 Midterms and the State of Trumpism

By David Corn  November 12, 2022

Democrat John Fetterman with his campaign staff on November 9, 2022, after winning the Senate race in Pennsylvania. Ted Shaffrey/AP

Clarity.

Even though the midterms dust has not settled as I write this, the results of the recent national electoral battle is a chance to assess the state of MAGA extremism in the United States. It’s still unclear whether the House Republicans will limp into the majority (though it seems probable), and the future of the Senate is not resolved. But we do know that in the absence of a red wave, many Trump-approved mega-MAGA candidates who ran for statewide offices flopped. Doug Mastriano, the QAnonish January Sixer who hobnobbed with a prominent antisemitic was clobbered by Democrat Josh Shapiro in the Pennsylvania governor’s race. Election denier Don Bolduc in New Hampshire was slammed by incumbent Sen. Maggie Hassan. Kari Lake, the Queen of the Big Lie, is trailing Democrat Katie Hobbs in the governor’s race in slow-counting Arizona. The QAnon-friendly, Trump-endorsed election deniers who sought to seize control of their states’ election systems by running for secretary of state—Mark Finchem in Arizona, Kristina Karamo in Michigan, and Jim Marchant—have had a tough time. Karamo lost in a statewide Democrat sweep in her state , and at this point Finchem trails his Democratic opponent significantly. Meanwhile, Marchant is on the losing side in a tight race.

The Donald J. Trump touch was not a winning one this week. Paging Dr. Oz and Herschel Walker, though the latter, who placed second in his contest with Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, remains politically alive with a run-off election set for December 6.

The big GOP victors on Tuesday night were the reelected-in-a-romp Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Trump rival, and JD Vance, a Trump-endorsed candidate with more on his resumé than Trumpist extremism. Both leaned far into rightwing, anti-woke, demagogic populism. Where MAGA seems to have scored best  is in the US House, with the GOP probably eking out a narrow win—though we might not now for several more days. House Republicans, particularly several MAGA candidates, performed more poorly than expected—even Rep. Lauren Boebert had a tight race—but no matter how slight this win, a House run by a party of election deniers and conspiracy theory peddlers will be a hotbed of MAGA extremism and pose a threat to democracy.

Though the morning-after punditry focused on the MIA Republican tsunami, a simple GOP takeover of the House will yield tremendous—and chaotic—MAGA-driven consequences. As I wrote in the wee hours of Election Night: 

House Republicans have promised other disruptions in addition to the inevitable scuffles over such policy issues as climate change, taxes, gun safety, and immigration. They have signaled their intention to cut Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid and provoke another debt ceiling battle that could trigger a global financial meltdown. The imposition of further restrictions on reproductive rights is part of their agenda. They will shut down the January 6 committee and launch multiple impeachments (of Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, Attorney General Merrick Garland, and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas) and a long line of combative investigations. Probable targets: Hunter Biden, the 2020 election, Hunter Biden, the Mar-a-Lago raid, Hunter Biden, the National Archives, Hunter Biden, the January 6 committee and its members (watch out Adam Schiff, Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger, and Jamie Raskin!), Hunter Biden, Dr. Anthony Fauci, Hunter Biden, the Russia investigation, and much more— including possibly the much-cherished golden oldies of Benghazi and Hillary Clinton’s emails. And government shutdowns, anyone?

Revenge and spite are two of Trump’s primary motivations….His thirst for vengeance will push House Republicans to extreme and unprecedented lengths. The lower chamber under GOP control will become Trump’s very own weapon of retribution

So, after the Big Lie, after January 6, after Trump’s full embrace of QAnon, after his posting of an antisemitic message on social media—the party that embraces Trump and that aided and abetted his schemes to overturn the 2020 election may be gaining a controlling interest of one-half of Congress. That should be mighty troubling, even as Trumpism was eschewed by voters in critical gubernatorial, senatorial, and secretary of state races.

This political landscape suggests that MAGAism is generally better able to flourish in congressional districts (especially those gerrymandered by Republicans) than in statewide contests outside the impenetrable solid red states. The equation is basic: the larger the voter pool, the lower the odds of success for crazy. This tracks with the results of the last two presidential contests. Trumpism was soundly rejected in the popular vote. It was only because of the antiquated Electoral College that this demagogue managed to win in 2016 and come close in 2020.

The bottom line: Most of America is not keen on MAGA extremism, but it is far from dead.

Tens of millions of Americans remain within the Trump cult, accepting election denialism and his firehose of lies, his assorted conspiracy theories, his incitement of violence, his mean-spiritedness, bigotry, and narcissism, and his wannabe authoritarianism. As the Washington Post reported, as of Friday morning, 170  of 291 election deniers on the ballot for House, Senate, and major statewide offices had won their contests, with about two dozen of these races not yet called.

These voters flocked to Lake, who had loudly proclaimed the 2020 election stolen (and who started to raise conspiratorial questions about her own race while the votes were being tallied), and to Walker, a shockingly ignorant liar and moral hypocrite. Had it not been for his multiple abortion scandals, the incompetent Walker would have undoubtedly defeated Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, rather than drag him into a run-off. Democrats have crowed—and mainstream Republicans have groused—that Trump’s promotion of Walker and Oz, a weak contender as well, gave the Democrats a fighting chance to retain the Senate. But these candidates and other Trumpists—supporters of unhinged allegations and enablers of political violence—still attracted the votes of many Americans. Sane Americans ought to worry that QAnon-friendly Republicans such as Finchem and Marchant can each bag 47 percent of the vote in swing states.

Trumpism and the politics of irrationality and demagoguery have not been vanquished (see the House). The electoral success of this malignant political force depends on multiple factors, including, the performance of a candidate, particularly how much crazy he or she stirs into the mix. Look at Vance and Bolduc, each a Trumper. Vance, dangerous but not crazy, won in increasingly red Ohio. Bolduc, dangerous and crazy, lost in purplish New Hampshire.

The loss of Trump’s favorite MAGA GOPers did prompt handwringing and murmuring on the right about his hold on the party. Rupert Murdoch’s mighty propaganda machine even tossed a few darts at Trump, while hailing DeSantis. But we’ve seen this movie before, with the GOP establishment and conservative poohbahs taking steps to distance themselves from Trump—remember the hours after January 6?—only to fall back in line when it was clear that the base was sticking with the former reality TV star.

With all this to chew on, the midterms might offer some guidance for an anti-Trumpism strategy. The results show—as did the 2016 and 2020 returns—that hard-core MAGA extremism is a minority position in much of the country. There are more Americans repelled by the hate and conspiracism of MAGAism than drawn to it. Gerrymandering, the Electoral College, and the two-senators-from-every-state set-up afford Trumpism and the Republicans disproportionate influence. But if the rest of the nation bands together (and votes!), it could isolate this political tumor.

Consequently, the top goal for progressives and Democrats might not be to coax Trump voters to change sides. There does not seem to be much room for such persuasion. Pushing progressive economic populism might draw only a thin slice of Trump-curious voters back to the Ds. Such an appeal likely helped Democrat John Fetterman send Oz back to New Jersey, but it did not carry the day for Democrat Rep. Tim Ryan, who lost to Vance. Instead, the main target ought to be those voters who are in the mushy middle, who do not think much about the threat to democracy presented by Trumpism or the negative policy consequences of Trumpist Republican rule. If progressives and Democrats speak to them—often and fiercely—and make a robust case (which does not have to be predicated on ideological moderation and half-measures), they might be able to forge a popular front that contains Trumpism. This ain’t easy. And in some blood-red parts of the country, it will be near-impossible. (Read this moving Twitter thread from Jessica Piper, a Democrat in rural Missouri who lost a race for the state legislature, recounting what she encountered on the campaign trail.)

This week demonstrated two key notions. Unadulterated MAGAism is a liability for Republicans in non-red regions, and Trumpism—that is, reality-denying, anti-democratic demagoguery—is still a tremendous danger supported by millions of our fellow citizens. The former can help thwart the latter.

Got anything to say about this item—or anything else? Email me at ourland@motherjones.com

Dumbass Comment of the Week

The judges were overwhelmed this week with the flood of inane post-election wailing from the right. The red wave that wasn’t created a tide of laughable commentary. So much so that there was just no way to absorb it all and do the work necessary for awarding this week’s prize. (The judges take their responsibility very seriously.) Instead, we’re just going to point out a few of the more outrageous utterances. This week, everyone gets a trophy!

On conspiracist Alex Jones' show, Roger Stone and Jones voiced concern that Republicans and conservatives didn’t bother voting in the midterms because they no longer have faith in the electoral system. “I actually think, unfortunately, that the results last night add to a growing frustration,” Stone remarked. “What disappoints me is the number of people who tell me that after the last election they just tuned out anything political and stopped paying attention. Their attitude is, ‘It’s broken and it cannot be fixed. I’m going to go to my kid’s little league game.’” Now how could these folks  possibly have gotten the idea that the political system was not working? Hmmm. Who told them that?

Jesse Watters, the Fox host and poor man’s Bill O’Reilly, offered this trenchant analysis of the election results: "There’s just not the hatred for Joe Biden that there is for Barack Obama and for the Clintons. There's not a 'Hate Biden' vote that's out there!...People just don’t feel the same passion against the guy.” What a pity. Watters, without realizing it, was criticizing himself and his entire network. Clearly, their aim has been to whip up hatred of Biden and Democrats. (Ever watch Tucker Carlson?) His ugly complaint that America doesn’t hate Biden was a self-indictment. He and the Fox crew are just going to have work harder.

Watters didn’t stop there. Trying to Foxsplain the midterms, he declared, “Single women are breaking for Democrats by 30 points. This makes sense when you think about how Democrat policies are designed to keep women single. But once women get married, they vote Republican. Married women, married men go for Republicans by double digits. Single women and voters under 40 have been captured by Democrats. So we need these ladies to get married. And it's time to fall in love and just settle down. Guys, go put a ring on it." I don’t think this idiocy requires any deep analysis. Dobbs, anyone?

Speaking of O’Reilly, he had his own tantrum on Sean Hannity’s radio show, while discussing Fetterman’s defeat of Oz. The huckster doctor, he bellowed, “lost because of Philadelphia…The big thing was the Philadelphia African-American vote turned out for Fetterman, and they don't even know who Fetterman is." Racism, much?

Appearing on Trump-loving Charlie Kirk’s talk show, with the recently convicted Steve Bannon looking on, Jack Posobiec, the right-winger who gave us Pizzagate, exclaimed, “The Left literally wants to turn everyone into an unmarried woman. Literally. Literally. And you know what I mean by that. That’s what they want to do because that’s how they win. So that shame, that regret, that bitterness, that anger that’s just kind of there, the super pro-abortion vote—that’s what they want to maximize throughout the country.” Literally…what the f***? The judges had no idea what this meant, but he seems to believe that unmarried women who lose the freedom to control their own lives are unjustifiably upset. It’s probably good for the Democrats if this is the prevailing “wisdom” on the right. Guys, keep on dissing this voting bloc as hysterical and angry women. That should work out well for you. 

Enter a perennial contender for the Dumbass Comment of the Week: Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas). He had his own hot take: “Why did the Democrats do better than expected? Because for two years they have governed as liberals. They’ve governed as whacked out lefty nut jobs. And you know what that did? That excited their base. That excited a bunch of young voters that came out in massive numbers because when you actually stand for something, your base gets excited.” Imagine that. A political party delivering popular programs to the citizenry and inspiring people to vote. It’s amazing no one ever thought of that before. 

Special dishonorable mention goes to The Former Guy, who stated with laughable simplicity his world view. Prior to the results coming in, Trump proclaimed of the Republicans, “I think if they win, I should get all of the credit, and if they lose, I should not be blamed at all.” He added, “But it will probably be just the opposite.” Poor fellow just can’t get a break.

The Mailbag

Readers seemed to appreciate the Beatles respite I sent out on the morning of Election Day. I’m guessing the dread that many experienced at the start of the day eased when the results started coming in.

Leonard Wolff emailed:

Thank you for taking my mind off the horrors of our current political landscape with my favorite band, The Beatles. They are the rock pop phenom of the last century without a doubt. I always leaned a little more towards Paul due to his musicality, but the lofty place all four got to together will forever link them in greatness. You perfectly described their roles separately and as a group in these short essays. It made me wonder if you'd spent much time listening to another icon for me, Jimmy Webb. He too still delivers and went from writing great pop hits to some of the most sophisticated and intellectually stimulating songs ever, both musically and lyrically. I encourage you to check him out if you are not familiar with his solo albums as I think you can appreciate the simultaneous depth of his musicality, seriousness, and poetic approach.

I mostly appreciate Jimmy Webb for “Wichita Lineman,” a wonderful song he wrote for Glen Campbell. But he did so much more. Bruce Springsteen paid tribute to Webb with his 2019 Western Stars album. And my old pal Freedy Johnston does a great cover of “Wichita Lineman”:

Ed Brennan wrote:

I've known' you since 1989.  (I was the Earth Flag.) Suggest you listen to John Prine for revitalization!

I have only the foggiest memory of a human being as the Earth Flag. Is there a photo? As for John Prine, I am still upset he perished during Covid. A tremendous loss. I’m a big fan, and, to honor his memory, my band does a pumped-up version of his “Great Rain.”

There was, as there always is, much response to my last pre-election pondering of Democratic messaging. I had suggested that Biden lowballed the threat to democracy presented by Trump and the GOP—and this miscalculation could cost the Democrats. How does that take look now? That depends on where you’re looking. The GOP, a party that attacked democracy and that opposes numerous policies popular with most Americans (expanding Medicare to cover dental, lower prescription drug prices, gun safety measures, paid family leaver, increased taxes on the wealthy, the protection of reproductive rights), appears to likely to gain control of the House—albeit by a slim margin. To win it back and retain the White House, the Democrats will have to up their game in the years ahead.

Addressing this matter, Joel Hammer observed,

I believe you have nailed it with your comments regarding President Biden’s speech the other day. Not only was it too little too late, but it was too mild and reflective of everything the Democrats have been doing wrong for the past year. I guess it is true, Democrats just don’t know how to fight back. As a Jew, I am terrified about what this country is going through. I can’t possibly imagine how bad it will be if and when the Republicans take control of Congress.

Nancy Sullivan emailed:

Please look at the history of Barack Obama. He is the Mr. Nice Guy of all time. He even lets George W. Bush/Dick Cheney off-the-hook for their torture at black sites and the awful prisons they ran, and Democrats even went along with the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. Democrats have let the GOP get away with murder and mayhem for years and years. I wasn't born yet when *FDR said, "I welcome your hatred" to the GOP.  Now, they want to do something about the GOP?  Well, good luck. The bad guys are coming back to town with their big guns and they may not leave. How did Democrats get to be such wimps?  Please tell us. They let the GOP beat-up their elderly (with words and videos) House leader every day and then they act surprised when her old husband is beaten with a hammer. I could say a lot more.

Kathleen Mele wrote:

Great read on Biden's speech. I would say that we are already in minority rule. Until we get rid of the Electoral College we will continue to be. I really enjoy Our Land.

My friend David Williams sent in a recommendation:

Just finished binging the 2nd season of a great British thriller, The Capture, on Peacock. Shilling portrayal of lives under perpetual surveillance and reality manipulated by AI, deepfakes, data-mining and disinformation. Well-scripted with great actors. Highly recommended.

MoxieCam™

“What’s all this I hear about mules and ballot boxes. I don’t smell any mules.”

“Very funny, Moxie.”

Read Recent Issues of Our Land

November 8, 2022: It’s election day…and it’s the Beatles; and more.

November 5, 2022: Has Biden lowballed the threat to American democracy; American Psychosis in the news; Dumbass Comment of the Week (Kari Lake); the Mailbag; MoxieCam™; and more.

November 1, 2022: Elon Musk: a problem, not a solution, when it comes to right-wing extremism; Barack Obama gets it right; Jason Kander’s gutsy and empathetic memoirs; Robert Gordon, RIP; and more.

October, 29, 2022: How Covid disappeared—politically; Dumbass Comment of the Week (Mehmet Oz); the Mailbag, MoxieCam™; and more.

October 25, 2022: Why Joe Biden and the Democrats should be talking about teeth; Michael Flynn’s greatest hits; the brilliance of Peaky Blinders; and more.

October 22, 2022: Attack ads—why they work (then and now); Tulsi Gabbard’s short, strange trip; Dumbass Comment of the Week (Marjorie Taylor Greene); the Mailbag; MoxieCam™; and more.

October 18, 2022: John Durham confirms Donald Turmp is a liar; the big takeaway from the Cuban missile crisis; a new Bruce Springsteen tune; Bill Berry return to rock ‘n’ roll; and more.

October 15, 2022: The Mailbag: should you worry about the midterms; the final January 6 committee hearing; Dumbass Comment of the Week (Charlie Kirk); MoxieCam™; and more.

October 12, 2022: Time to push the panic button on the midterms?; Servants of the Damned and the law firm that’s Trump’s modern-day Roy Cohn; and more.

Got suggestions, comments, complaints, tips related to any of the above, or anything else? Email me at ourland@motherjones.com.