A NEWSLETTER FROM DAVID CORN |
A NEWSLETTER FROM DAVID CORN |
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Can the Centrists Hold in the Era of Donald Trump? |
By David Corn October 8, 2022 |
A Trump supporter holds up a flag at a Donald Trump rally in Warren, Michigan, on October 1, 2022. Jill Colvin/AP |
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The other night, as I noted in the last newsletter, I participated in a panel discussion at the Brookings Institution, the centrist/liberalish think tank, to mark the publication of Divided We Fall: Why Consensus Matters, the book that Alice Rivlin, a prominent economist and veteran of Democratic administrations, was writing when she died in 2019. (It was completed by her son Allan Rivlin and his wife Sheri Rivlin.) The book is an inside-the-Beltway call for pushing past partisan warfare, even in the era of Donald Trump. Much of the conversation about Rivlin and her book focused on whether there was reason for hope (the bipartisan infrastructure bill! the bipartisan CHIPS act!) or whether all was lost (Trump and his authoritarianism-enabling GOP cult). You can watch it here.
A fellow panelist, William Galston, a senior fellow at Brookings, Clinton White House official, and self-described centrist Democrat, took issue with two points in Rivlin’s book that I considered most salient. Point One: Members of the Washington establishment—which included Rivlin—failed to recognize the full impact of economic and racial inequality, did not see the 2007-2008 crash coming, and sped too quickly in and out of the revolving door with Corporate America, and, thus, suffered a loss of credibility with the American public. Point Two: The nation has been slammed by an asymmetrical polarization in which Republicans have moved further to the right than Democrats have moved to the left.
Citing polling data, Galston noted that in 1964, 77 percent of the country “trusted the federal government to do the right thing all or most of the time.” Ten years later—after the Vietnam War, social unrest, Watergate, and other profound changes—that number declined to 36 percent. It continued to plummet to 25 percent at the end of 1980 and, Galston said, has “remained in that zone ever since.” His conclusion: “We have been a low-trust society for half a century.” That is, the establishment has not recently forfeited the trust of the people; it hasn’t been there for a good long time. Not much has changed.
Galston, referencing polling data, also maintained that from 1994 to 2017, the Democratic Party—measured by the number of Democrats who identify as liberals—has shifted more to the left than the Republican Party has shifted to the right. Galston acknowledged that Republican elected officials slid much farther to the right than Democratic elected officials to the left, but he added, “The transformation in the Republican Party between 1994 and 2017 was less profound than the transformation of the Democratic Party.”
Listening to Galston, a smart fellow who loves his data, I wondered if conventional polling might not capture the troubling transition in American politics of recent years and decades. Liberal-versus-conservative and trust-in-the-feds-versus-no-trust-in-the feds might not be the best measurements for this current era. Rather than left against right, perhaps we ought to be thinking in terms of rationality/democracy arrayed against irrationality/authoritarianism. I shared this idea with the Brookings audience. Look at it this way, I asserted, how much does it matter if a Republican says he or she is a conservative, moderate, or liberal, if he or she believes Barack Obama was born in Kenya, the 2020 election was stolen from Trump, and Democrats are scheming pedophiles. The polling numbers on these reality-free propositions for Republicans, I noted, are “40, 50, 60 percent.”
The moderator Matt Miller, a former journalist and onetime Clinton administration official who calls himself a radical centrist, interrupted and asked, “They think that Democrats are pedophiles?” Miller could not believe this. Yet recent polling shows that 49 percent of Republicans and 52 percent of Trump voters in 2020 said they believed Democrats were involved in child sex-trafficking operations—a foundation of the loony QAnon conspiracy theory that Trump has recently embraced. And while I’m at it, let me note that a 2019 survey found that 56 percent of Republicans said it was “probably true” or “definitely true” that Obama had been born in Kenya. As for the 2020 election, according to Politifact, “Roughly 70% of Republicans don’t see Biden as the legitimate winner. Surveys by different pollsters show virtually the same results, with the exception of a Washington Post/University of Maryland poll that dropped it to 61%.” A poll taken in June revealed that 61 percent of Republicans considered the events of January 6 a “legitimate protest.”
All this shows that the Republican Party has been thoroughly radicalized in a manner not captured by the usual big-picture, poli-sci methods. The base of the party, whether or not it has moved farther to the right, has become increasingly detached from reason and more affixed to paranoia and false conspiracy theories. This is not an ideological polarization. It is a divide over reality and rationality. That’s the key asymmetry shaping American politics.
And there’s a big difference between believing in 1974 that the government is untrustworthy because of Vietnam lies and Watergate skullduggery and believing in 2022 that it cannot be trusted because an election was stolen by baby-eating Democrats who were in league with the Deep State, China, Venezuela, the CIA, crooked voting machine companies, Italian satellite operators, and other sinister players.
Tracking the ideological shifts of the rank-and-file does not offer us a good understanding of the moment. As Washington Post columnist E.J. Dionne noted during the Q&A session, one reason the data shows a greater move recently for the Democrats is that the Republicans had already gone far right and there was not much room left there for them. Moreover, if Republicans believe that Democrats are pedophiles bent on destroying the United States (see Dumbass Comment of the Week below), they are hardly going to be keen on forging bipartisan, centrist-driven agreements with the opposition.
With Trump’s Big Lie, January 6, and the QAnonization of the GOP, we are in unchartered waters. The fight to preserve American democracy does not line up neatly on a left-right axis. Republicans are radicalized not ideologically but culturally and propelled not by allegiance to conservative policy positions but by irrational fears and bizarre conspiracy theories. You cannot reach many deals with such people, especially when they refuse to recognize the outcome of elections and threaten the foundation of American democracy. I hope the consensus-seekers of the center realize that.
At a post-panel dinner, Galston asked me what I thought about being in the “belly of the establishment.” I answered: “The food is good.” (Barbecued chicken and crab cakes.) While we ate, Galston and I agreed that the strategy for confronting Trumpism must include both efforts at containing the Trumpists and attempts aimed at peeling away support for Trumpism at the margins. That means reaching out to some Trump voters. Of course, what’s important is how you try to do each of those things. Galston and I might not agree on the strategies. But what’s crucial is that all elements of the non-Trump coalition have a clear and accurate view of what they are up against. It’s ugly and mean, and it’s not interested in consensus.
Got anything to say about this item—or anything else? Email me at ourland@motherjones.com |
American Psychosis in the News |
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Dumbass Comment of the Week (Special Herschel Walker Edition) |
By the time you read this, who knows what will be the latest development in the Herschel Walker soap opera? Days ago, the Daily Beast reported that in 2009 Walker paid for a girlfriend’s abortion. As the GOP Senate candidate in Georgia, Walker, the onetime football star, has been fully in sync with his party’s war on women’s freedom and has called for a total ban on abortions after 15 weeks. No exceptions. For the Republican Party, it’s another Access Hollywood moment, in which Rs and conservatives rally around a candidate, no matter his conduct. Naturally, this led to a rash of stupid remarks.
First, let’s recognize a runner-up who was addressing another topic this week. In the wake of the Hurricane Ian disaster, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis blasted the national media:
You have national regime media—that they wanted to see Tampa [hit by the hurricane] because they thought that that would be worst for Florida. That’s how these people think. They don’t care about the people of this state. They don’t care about the people of this community. They want to use storms and destructions from storms as a way to advance their agenda. They don’t care what destruction’s in their wake. They don’t care about the lives here. If they can use it to pursue their political agenda, they will do it. So I think there was a lot of build-up about that
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This was damn mean-spirited. DeSantis was claiming journalists had rooted for Ian to slam Tampa because, as predictions noted, this would be the most disastrous scenario. (One forecast said that a direct hit on Tampa would result in the flooding and destruction of a million structures.) Worse, DeSantis suggested the motivation of the national media was political. He didn’t spell it out. Did he mean these media people were hoping for the greatest devastation because that could be a political liability for him? Or because such a catastrophe would demonstrate the dangers of climate change? In any event, this was a cynical and baseless accusation. I know of no reporters, editors, or producers who were cheering for the annihilation of Tampa. DeSantis was making this up to stoke hatred of the media. It’s what demagogues do
Back to Walker and abortion. Newt Gingrich was in the running this week with his defense of Walker:
I think he is the most important Senate candidate in the country because he’ll do more to change the Senate… by his deep commitment to Christ… He’s been through a long tough period. He had a lot of concussions coming out of football. |
That was hardly a ringing endorsement of a man who wants to be a US senator. If Walker has been traumatized by football-related injuries—he himself has attributed his prior acts of domestic violence to his mental health issues—perhaps a high-pressure job in the Senate is not best for him…or Georgians.
Dana Loesch, conservative provocateur and former NRA spokesperson, spelled things out clearly:
Does this change anything?... Not a damn thing. How many times have I said four important words? These four words: Winning is a virtue. What I’m about to say is by no means a contradiction or a compromise of a principle…. I don’t care if Herschel Walker paid to abort endangered baby eagles. I want control of the Senate. If the Daily Beast story is true, you’re telling me Walker used his money to reportedly pay some skank for an abortion and Warnock wants to sue all of our monies to pay a whole bunch of skanks for an abortion. And, yes, when…its my taxpayer dollars, you have invited me up into your business, and I will use whatever descript [sic] I will like to. So it doesn’t change anything for me. I don’t know if he did it or not. I don’t even care.
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This is the essence of the GOP project: power uber alles. The Democrats bounce Al Franken for what was deemed a sexist act of harassment. The Republicans defend and cheer on a guy who paid for what they claim is murder. And Loesch gets extra points for the misogynistic rhetoric.
The winner—no surprise—is Walker. But perhaps not for the reason you would expect. He denied the story and said it was a lie. On Fox News, though, he was asked why his son Christian Walker, in the wake of the abortion allegation, had denounced Herschel for abusing and abandoning his family. Walker said, “The left will do whatever they can to win this seat.” Huh? Was he suggesting his son, a well-known conservative influencer, was part of a leftist plot? Walker continued:
People see someone sitting here in front of you right now that’s been redeemed. I want America to know I’m living proof that you can make mistakes and get up and keep going forward. But you can only do it in this country right here. And you can only do it if we get this election correct this come [sic] November, because if we vote for the people on the left, like the guy I’m running against, Sen. Warnock, you’re not going to have a chance to be redeemed. He’s a minister. He don’t believe in redemption. Right now, they’re trying to destroy America; they’re trying to destroy Georgia...It ain’t gonna happen on my watch.
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There is so much noxious stuff in that short comment. One can only find redemption in the United States, no other country? That’s certainly bad news for the Pope, the Archbishop of Canterbury, and other Christian leaders around the world. What an idiotic sentiment. Not even the average American exceptionalist would agree with this. Add to it the usual right-wing fearmongering and demonizing that comes from Trump and that has been peddled by conservative extremists for decades (see American Psychosis!): The Democrats are not merely wrong; they are purposefully attempting to “destroy” the United States. Then there was this insult: Walker accused Sen. Raphael Warnock, his Democratic opponent who has been the senior pastor of the Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, where Martin Luther King Jr. was once minister, of not believing in redemption. Walker was questioning Warnock’s faith and standing as a Christian. For all of this—not his standard denial—Walker was the top scorer this week.
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A bunch of readers wrote to share their reactions to American Psychosis. Cabot Thunem emailed:
The book it is not a page-turner, but part of the problem for me is I find it very depressing. I have been aware of a lot of this, and I keep thinking that people, my Republican friends mostly, will eventually wake up. It seems they are sliding deeper down that hole instead.
First off, Cabot, others have said the book is a quick and oddly enjoyable read, given the subject matter. My goal is not to depress, but to illuminate. As I asserted above, to figure out how to get out of this current and dangerous fix, we must have a clear picture of the moment and what has brought us to this point. If Republicans are becoming more radicalized and irrational, the rest of the nation must find a way to band together to counter that. Chela Grey had a different take:
I am currently reading your book and want to let you know that it is making a huge, positive impression on me. The way you write is not only compelling, but also educational. I admit to having been quite uninterested in anything governmental and/or historical while in school (at all levels) as it was taught in a very boring way. From your book I am now learning things I neglected to pay attention to while in school and actually enjoying it!
Jennifer White wrote:
Just ordered your book from my little library in the town of Daajing Giids, Haida Gwaii, northern British Columbia. We have a system of libraries about 45 up and down Vancouver Island and the BC coast. The system has three copies of your book and there are presently 33 people waiting to read it. I hope you get a few pennies for every time someone reads it. I love your emails when I have time to read....I'll send money soon. Thanks for the promise, Jennifer. Perhaps you can nudge your library system to spring for a few more copies. It’s nice to know the book is big in northern BC.
Cynthia Young responded to the recent issue in which I wrote about using Moxie to trick the Facebook algorithm into promoting the book.
I've been a fan for years. Currently I'm a "senior" grad student at USC Annenberg in Digital Media Management. Facebook algorithms have been the focus of a couple of classes. Your FB story is one of the best. That FB wants to charge you to post to people who follow you is the height of greed—and lack of service to its customers (your fans). The Facebook algorithm’s change from news to personal (news to "opinion") shows how they are magnifying lies/conspiracy theories. Have you written anything more about curbing the algorithms without curbing free speech? I'd like to share this article with my class—with your permission. I'm signing up for the newsletter and buying the book. I saw you on Rachel Maddow and Joe Scarborough, but you had me with Moxie.
Moxie is glad to hear that. Permission granted. I have not written much else on Facebook and its algorithm. But we do need to know more about it. Speaking of Moxie… |
“What have you been doing all day, Moxie?” “Waiting for you.” “And?” “Waiting for you.”
“And?” “Waiting for you.” “You must be worn out.” “It’s exhausting.” |
Read Recent Issues of Our Land |
October 4, 2022: American Psychosis, Facebook, and a dog; a denizen of the economic establishment admits the elite’s big mistakes; Topdog/Underdog’s brilliance hits Broadway; and more. October 1, 2022: How Giorgia Meloni’s win in Italy helps us understand a US Senate race; American Psychosis in the news; Dumbass Comment of the Week (Ben Stein); the Mailbag; MoxieCam™; and more.
September 27, 2022: Stormy Daniels, AOC, and the long arc of Donald Trump’s possible downfall; American Psychosis in the news; Skullduggery and the Havana Syndrome; the New York Times agrees about Mark Finchem; and more. September 24, 2022: The craziest GOP candidate in the nation; American Psychosis becomes a bestseller; Dumbass Comment of the Week (FPOTUS); the Mailbag; MoxieCam™; and more. September 21, 2022: Donald Trump and the birth of QMaga; American Psychosis in the news; House of the Dragon versus The Rings of Power; and more.
September 17, 2022: American Psychosis and the reckoning of history; the Mailbag; MoxieCam™; and more. September 13: What Barack Obama said to me about the 47 percent video; the release of American Psychosis; and more.
September 10, 2022: A death in Washington and a very Trumpian conspiracy theory; American Psychosis update; Dumbass Comment of the Week (Donald Trump Jr.); the Mailbag; MoxieCam™; and more.
September 7, 2022: Donald Trump and gaslight fascism; the conservative crazy gets crazier; American Psychosis: the first review; a brilliant after-the-Vietnam War novel and Dark Winds; and more. September 2, 2022: Snowflake fascists and the GOP politics of rubber and glue; American Psychosis tease of the week; Dumbass Comment of the Week (Blake Masters); Michael Ondaatje’s The Cat’s Table and Sara Watkins’ “You and Me”; the Mailbag; MoxieCam™; and more.
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Got suggestions, comments, complaints, tips related to any of the above, or anything else? Email me at ourland@motherjones.com. |
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